diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/calculator.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/calculator.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f01c953 Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/calculator.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/dead-weight.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/dead-weight.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b343f73 Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/dead-weight.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/no-dead-weight.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/no-dead-weight.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1216a8b Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/no-dead-weight.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent1.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent1.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56c5809 Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent1.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent2.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent2.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03bc074 Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent2.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent3.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent3.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8146c17 Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent3.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent4.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent4.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5baca46 Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent4.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent5.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent5.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a464bcb Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent5.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent6.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent6.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4f96022 Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent6.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent7.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent7.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2b258d5 Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent7.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent8.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent8.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ebd0f4e Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent8.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent9.png b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent9.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..73871da Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/figures/rent9.png differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/notes.org b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/notes.org new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8c6c3f1 --- /dev/null +++ b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/notes.org @@ -0,0 +1,110 @@ +* https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/land-use-reform +The problem + +Laws at the local level in the United States and many other countries impose +strict limits on how much total floor area can be built on a plot of land. Such +zoning laws constitute a major obstacle to the construction of dense housing. +The resulting increase in housing prices reduces economic efficiency by creating +significant deadweight loss; increases inequality by transferring wealth from +renters to landowners; and reduces both wages and total economic output by +preventing workers from relocating where they can be most productive. + +The effects of zoning laws on housing prices can be estimated by comparing the +sale price of housing to the associated costs of land and construction.[1] Open +Philanthropy has combined these estimates with rent data and some additional +assumptions to conclude that the aggregate "tax" on renters in five large +metropolitan areas amounts to over $100 billion in deadweight loss per year.[2] + +A study by economists Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti examines the costs +resulting from the reduced flow of workers to more productive regions within the +United States due to rising housing prices. The authors conclude that land use +restrictions depress annual U.S. wages by $1.27 trillion and output by $1.95 +trillion.[3][4] + +If land use restrictions create these problems, why do they persist? In part, +the costs of restricting land use in a given location are incurred by workers +who would benefit from moving to that location, and who as such do not yet live +there. Since restrictions are created at the local level, they are insensitive +to the interests of these workers, who do not vote in those jurisdictions. Other +costs of restricting land use—such as reduced economic output—are dispersed +across society as a whole. Public choice theory explains why governments neglect +these costs and instead focus on the concentrated benefits to landowners—even +if, in the aggregate, the costs vastly outweigh the benefits. + +Possible solutions + +Open Philanthropy and 80,000 Hours have proposed a number of solutions to the +problems caused by land use restrictions, which are quoted below. Policy options + +Promising options open to policymakers include the following:[2] + + "Local governments in high-wage high-regulation metropolitan areas could + simply 'upzone', permitting more and denser development." "Local governments + could change the process by which they decide how to regulate land use. For + example, they could adopt a 'zoning budget' targeting an overall level of + housing growth, so that restrictions in one area would have to be balanced + by expansions elsewhere. This would help align incentives of advocates for + individual projects to support greater overall growth." "Decision-making in + land use policy could be re-assigned from local to regional or state + authorities, which would likely be less susceptible to neighborhood pressure + to oppose new development." + +Funding options + +Promising options open to funders include the following:[5] + + Fund existing local groups, such as YIMBY Action, California YIMBY or Open + New York, or potential new groups in key housing markets. "Fund a campaign + to move land use decision-making power from the local to the regional or + state level. We are not aware of any existing arrangements of this form in + the United States, or of any active efforts to promote them, so this would + likely be an exercise in 'active funding.'" "Support the development of a + policy consensus (for example, by convening conferences or sponsoring work + on this issue in prominent think tanks). This would have the benefits of + both encouraging coordination on this issue by policymakers, and improving + our understanding of what policy changes are most likely to be beneficial." + +* https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/housing-policy-reform/ +We seek to reduce the harms caused by excessively restrictive regulations on +local housing. + +Local laws often prohibit the construction of dense new housing, which has +contributed to rising housing prices and lower affordability for renters and +buyers. + +Ratio of median house price and median household income in the US, 1967-2021 (US +Census Bureau). House price data is MSPUS; median household income is from +Income in the US Table D-1. + +These price increases are pronounced in large, high-wage metro areas (e.g., New +York, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Washington D.C.). More +permissive policy which enabled a greater supply of housing in those areas could +unlock value by: + + Encouraging economic growth through greater innovation and agglomeration. + Increasing the earnings of individuals moving to high-wage jobs in those + areas. Enabling more people to live in denser areas, which have lower carbon + emissions. Redistributing wealth and income to lower-income households and + supporting access to housing for lower earners. + +Changing housing policy laws is unusually valuable because there is a huge +amount of private capital and firms dedicated to building new homes. Removing +restrictions on building — especially denser construction in cities — unlocks +that capital to be deployed much more efficiently without requiring +philanthropists or government to directly subsidize construction. Indeed, the +evidence is clear that “upzoning” (removing restrictions on denser housing) can +lead to increases in supply and reductions in prices, and several recent studies +conclude that building new homes (even market-rate homes) tends to make housing +more affordable, including for low-income households. + +Considering these potential gains, we think that working toward more permissive +housing policy from a public-interest perspective (as opposed to lobbying for +specific developments) appears neglected in those key regions. We began making +housing policy grants in 2015 and were early supporters of the YIMBY movement, +which supports people to advocate for permissive zoning and development in their +local areas. Since that time, we have seen significant growth in the movement +and notable policy breakthroughs. Successes our grantees have been involved in +include: the growth of Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) reform in California and +Seattle, bills supporting middle housing and ADUs in Washington state, and +further legislative success in California for housing on commercial corridors +and removing parking mandates near transit. diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/talk.pdf b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/talk.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b0d1d8e Binary files /dev/null and b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/talk.pdf differ diff --git a/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/talk.tex b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/talk.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ad4b0a3 --- /dev/null +++ b/20??-??-??-land-use-policy/talk.tex @@ -0,0 +1,403 @@ +\documentclass{beamer} + +% \usetheme{CambridgeUS} + +\title{Rethinking Land Use: Effective Altruism Meets Georgism} + +\subtitle{Mental frameworks for policy level interventions} + +\author{Your Name} + +\date{\today} + +\AtBeginSection[] { + \begin{frame} + \frametitle{Table of Contents} \tableofcontents[currentsection] + \end{frame} +} +\begin{document} + +\begin{frame} + \titlepage +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Welcome and Context} + \begin{itemize} + \item \textbf{Welcome!} Today, we'll explore Georgism—an economic philosophy + with potential relevance for effective altruists. + \item \textbf{Effective Altruism (EA):} A movement dedicated to using evidence + and reason to find the most effective ways to improve the world. + \item \textbf{Why discuss Georgism here?} + \begin{itemize} + \item EA seeks high-impact solutions to pressing global problems. + \item Georgism offers a distinctive approach to addressing poverty, + inequality, and resource allocation. + \item \emph{Land Use Reform} as cause area + \end{itemize} + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Motivation for the Land Use Reform Cause Area} + \begin{itemize} + \item Increased wealth transform from renters to landowners, reduction of both + wages and total economic output by preventing workers from relocating where + they can be most productive + \item Building permits, Zooning Laws and Nimbyism as structural roadblocks to + societal improvement + \item Surface Sealing, Car focus + \item Housing Crisis as everything crisis + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame} + + If land use restrictions create these problems, why do they persist? In part, + the costs of restricting land use in a given location are incurred by workers + who would benefit from moving to that location, and who as such do not yet + live there. Since restrictions are created at the local level, they are + insensitive to the interests of these workers, who do not vote in those + jurisdictions. Other costs of restricting land use—such as reduced economic + output—are dispersed across society as a whole. Public choice theory explains + why governments neglect these costs and instead focus on the concentrated + benefits to landowners—even if, in the aggregate, the costs vastly outweigh + the benefits. + +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Why Might Georgism Interest Effective Altruists?} + \begin{itemize} + \item \textbf{Root Cause Focus:} Georgism targets the root causes of social + and economic problems, rather than just symptoms. + \item \textbf{Systemic Change:} Proposes reforms with potential for + large-scale, sustainable impact. + \item \textbf{Alignment with EA Values:} + \begin{itemize} + \item Promotes fairness and justice in resource distribution. + \item Aims to maximize social welfare and reduce poverty. + \end{itemize} + \item \textbf{Room for More Impact:} Land value taxation and related ideas are + underexplored in mainstream policy, presenting an opportunity for neglected, + high-leverage action. + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{What is Georgism? (Preview)} +\begin{itemize} +\item Economic philosophy developed by Henry George (1839–1897) +\item \textbf{Core idea:} People should keep what they produce, but the value of + land and natural resources belongs equally to all +\item \textbf{Focus:} Fair distribution of \textit{economic rent} from land, + natural monopolies, and the commons +\item \textbf{Main policy:} Land Value Tax (LVT) — taxing the unimproved value + of land, not labor or productive capital +\item \textbf{Goal:} Reduce poverty, increase fairness, and fund public goods + efficiently. +\end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Why Should Effective Altruists Care?} +\begin{itemize} +\item Georgism addresses \textbf{systemic causes} of poverty and inequality +\item LVT is efficient, evidence-based, and minimizes economic distortions +\item Revenues can fund public goods, reduce regressive taxes, or provide a + basic income +\item Historical and modern examples show practical impact (e.g., land reforms + in Taiwan, Japan, and pilot communities) +\end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Georgism and Effective Altruism Values} +\begin{itemize} +\item \textbf{Prioritization:} Tackles neglected root causes of global problems +\item \textbf{Evidence-based:} Supported by economists for efficiency and + fairness +\item \textbf{Global Wellbeing:} Aims to eliminate poverty and promote + prosperity for all +\item \textbf{Systemic Change:} Offers a scalable, policy-level intervention +\end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +%\begin{frame}{Today's Agenda} +% \begin{itemize} +% \item Brief history and fundamentals of Georgism +% \item Exploring core concepts further: economic rent, land value tax +% \item How Georgism addresses issues central to EA: poverty, inequality, and +% efficient philanthropy +% \item How might Georgist policies fit into EA cause prioritization? +% \item Critiques and open questions +% \item Q\&A and discussion +% \end{itemize} +%\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Outline of talk} + \tableofcontents +\end{frame} + +\section{A brief history} + +\begin{frame}{What Is Georgism?} + \begin{itemize} + \item \textbf{Georgism} (also known as Geoism or the Single Tax Theory) is a + social economic philosophy developed by Henry George in the late 19th + century. + \item Core idea: \textbf{People should own the value they produce}, but the + \textbf{economic rent from land and natural resources should belong equally + to all of society}. + \item Focuses on land, natural resources, and the commons as sources of + unearned income that should be shared. + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Historical Background} + \begin{itemize} + \item Emerged in the late 19th century, rooted in classical liberalism and + political economy. + \item Influenced by thinkers like John Locke, Adam Smith, and John Stuart + Mill. + \item Sought to address persistent poverty despite technological progress and + wealth creation. + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Key Figure: Henry George} + \begin{itemize} + \item American economist and social reformer (1839–1897). + \item Author of \textit{Progress and Poverty} (1879), a bestseller second only + to the Bible in the US at the time. + \item Sought to explain why poverty persists alongside economic growth, + identifying private land rent as a key culprit. + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\section{The Law of Rent} + +\begin{frame}{David Ricardo and the Law of Rent} + \textbf{David Ricardo (1772--1823)} was a prominent classical economist who + formulated the Law of Rent in his 1817 work \textit{On the Principles of + Political Economy and Taxation}. + + \vspace{0.5cm} % + \textit{“Rent is always the difference between the produce obtained by the + employment of two equal quantities of capital and labour.”} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame} + \begin{figure} + \centering % + \url{https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yltJHY6g5I} + \end{figure} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame} + \begin{figure} + \centering % + \only<1>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent1}} + \only<2>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent2}} + \only<3>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent3}} + \only<4>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent4}} + \only<5>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent5}} + \only<6>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent6}} + \only<7>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent7}} + \only<8>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent8}} + \only<9>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/rent9}} + \end{figure} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame} + \begin{figure} + \centering % + \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/calculator} + \end{figure} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame} + \textbf{Ricardo's Law of Rent:} + \begin{itemize} + \item \textbf{Definition:} Rent is the portion of the produce of the earth + paid to the landlord for the use of the original and indestructible powers + of the soil. + \item \textbf{Key Principle:} Rent arises due to differences in land fertility + and location. It is the economic advantage obtained by using a land site in + its most productive use, relative to the advantage from using marginal + (rent-free) land, given the same inputs of labor and capital. + \item \textbf{Marginal Land:} The least productive land in use, which earns + zero rent. All other land earns rent equal to its excess productivity over + marginal land. + \item \textbf{Implications:} + \begin{itemize} + \item As population grows, less fertile land is cultivated, increasing + rent on superior land. + \item Rent does not enter into the cost of production; it is a surplus + accruing to landowners. + \end{itemize} + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\section{Core Principles} + +\begin{frame}{The Central Principle} + \begin{itemize} + \item \textbf{Distinction:} People own what they produce, but land and natural + resources are not produced by anyone. + \item \textbf{Single Tax:} Proposes a tax on land value (not on labor or + capital) to fund public goods and reduce inequality. + \item \textbf{Goal:} Economic efficiency, social justice, and reduction of + poverty by sharing unearned income from land. + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{The few different ways to make money in the economy} + \begin{itemize} + \item Labor: You can sell your time to produce more of a valuable good or + service. + \item Capital: You can lend someone else your money, allowing them to make + investments that will produce more valuable stuff. + \item Information: You can do research, developing and selling knowledge of + ways to create more valuable stuff. + \item Entrepreneurship: You can take on personal risk and leverage the labor, + capital, and information of others to create new valuable stuff. + \end{itemize} + And then there's land ownership. You can buy land, and then you collect rent + from people who want to use your land. +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Problems with land ownership} + \begin{itemize} + \item (scarcity) there's a fixed supply of land. Realistically you can't + create or destroy land (surface, which a mathematical area). + \item (inelasticity) the demand for land is very stable. You can't decide to + just not take up any physical space tomorrow. + \end{itemize} + This means + \begin{itemize} + \item landowners are effectively always running an auction for land use + \item the rent for land use keeps rising to the highest rate someone is + willing to pay. + \item because you can't make more land, land owners get to capture more and + more value as the economy grows, without the land owners actually doing + anything valuable. + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Actually, there are a few other things like land} + \begin{itemize} + \item domains + \item patents + \item electromagnetic frequencies + \item satellite orbits + \end{itemize} + (my) rule of thumb: if the thing you pay for is more like a right of usage + than an actual item, then the market for it is economically similar to the + land market +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Land value is (mostly) the value of society} + \small{ + \begin{itemize} + \item Close to essential services like schools, hospitals, shopping centers, + and recreational facilities + \item Easy access to public transportation and major highways + \item Near cultural amenities like theaters, museums, and restaurants + \item Safe area with low crime rates + \item Well-maintained public spaces and active community organizations + \item Strong sense of community with local events and activities + \item Located in an area with job opportunities and economic stability + \item Presence of thriving businesses and a flourishing local economy + \item Upcoming infrastructure projects or public improvements planned + \item Zoning changes that allow for increased development potential + \item Scenic views or natural beauty + \end{itemize}} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{General Moral Foundation} + \begin{itemize} + \item Everyone should benefit from natural resources and societal progress. + \item Privately created wealth remains private; socially created wealth (land + rent) is shared + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\section{Main Policy Proposals} + +\begin{frame}{Basic Argument\footnote{inspired by this discussion: + \url{https://old.reddit.com/r/georgism/comments/1esw8l9/where_do_you_start_when_introducing_georgism_to/}}} + \begin{small} + \vspace{-0.3cm} + \begin{itemize} + \item Nobody likes taxes, but we gotta pay for some stuff, so we should tax in + the least destructive way we can. + \item Turns out, land has this neat property where we can't really create it + or destroy it, so it's almost immune to distortionary taxes. + \item Plus, land has this ugly tendency to get hoarded and milked as a source + of income for people who don't actually contribute anything to society. + \item Plus plus, because of the eccentricities of how land works, you can tax + land a fair amount before landlords can pass those costs on to land users. + \item So, we can cut a bunch of bad taxes, like income tax and sales tax, + replace them with a tax on unearned income from land, and make almost + everybody better off! + \end{itemize} + \end{small} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Destructive Taxes - An Example} + \begin{itemize} + \item Imagine there will be a 10\% tax on apple sauce starting next year. + \item Producers are allowed to pass them to the consumer (as usual, and it can + not be prevented really) + \item Prices will increase by almost exactly 10\% (all things being equal) + \item Less people will buy apple sauce, even though the underlying demand does + not change + \item In a year's time, there will be around 10\% less apple sauce, because + here supply follows demand + \item Now imagine this for other, more important goods, like medicine and + income taxes that affect prices indirectly + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{A tax on land value has no dead weight} + \begin{minipage}{0.45\textwidth} + \begin{figure} + \centering \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/dead-weight} + \end{figure} + \end{minipage} + \begin{minipage}{0.45\textwidth} + \begin{figure} + \centering \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/no-dead-weight} + \end{figure} + \end{minipage} + \vspace{0.1cm}\\ + \footnotesize{ + \textit{price ceiling} means \textit{price before tax} in this context\\ + source (left): \url{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadweight_loss}\\ + source (right): \url{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax} } +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame} + \begin{itemize} + \item empty houses/flats will be put on the market because it is financially + reasonable to do so + \item additionally there is now incentive to building new houses on vacant + lots or add floors to existing buildings in high demand locations + \item the rent distribution will shift downwards + \item (small) businesses will have an easier time finding locations or + operating in the existing ones + \item people will move into the city + \item public infrastructure can be funded better + \item if land value is faithfully reflected in parking tickets, people will + park cars on their own property or get rid of it + \item tax evasion will become impossible + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + +% map of consequences ? + +\begin{frame}{General Expected Outcomes} + \begin{itemize} + \item More equitable distribution of wealth. + \item Incentives for productive use of land. + \item Reduction in speculative land holding and economic inefficiency + \end{itemize} +\end{frame} + + +\end{document}